UP polls: BJP favourite, SP gains momentum, shows ABP-CVoter survey


The ABP-CVoter survey was carried out in the first week of November, amid the various permutations and combinations in Uttar Pradesh ahead of assembly polls next year.

The Yogi Adityanath-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government is favourite to win the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections next year, according to the results of the ABP News-CVoter survey. It was conducted in the first week of November amid the various permutations and combinations emerging in the politically crucial state.

The ABP News-CVoter survey also showed that the Samajwadi Party (SP), under the leaderhsip of Akholesh Yadav, is gaining ground, while Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is sliding.

The survey was carried out in five states – Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur with the sample size of 1,07,193. The margin of error, according to ABP, was +/- 3% to +/- 5%.

The ABP-CVoter survey shows that the BJP’s seats are expected to come down from 325 in 2017 to something in the range of 213-221 in the UP assembly elections scheduled to be held early next year, but it is still in clear lead. The Election Commission is expected to announce the poll schedule in January.

The SP is projected to win 152-160 seats in the state elections next year, while the BSP is expected to win 16-20 seats – in the last election it won 19 seats.

The BJP is also likely to capture 40.7 per cent of the votes, marginally down from its 2017 number of 41.4 per cent, the ABP-CVoter survey further showed.

The Congress is also gaining some ground under the leadership of Priyanka Gandhi, the ABP-CVoter curvey said, showing an expected uptick of 2.7 per cent in the vote share as compared to the party’s 2017 performance.

The SP and its allies is likely to wrest 31.1 per cent vote share, up from 23.6 per cent they captured in 2017. The BSP, meanwhile, will most likely see its vote share plunge to 15.1 per cent from 22.2 per cent in last polls.

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